While the U.S. remains obsessed with the upcoming elections and dirty politics, CNN’s Michael Smerconish recently shed light on a new report from the Commission on the National Defense Strategy that warns about a “near-term major war” the US could face as well as numerous dangers abroad. They’ve warned that the next president of the United States will face a drastically different strategic environment compared to what President Joe Biden encountered.
Why is this alarming?
The U.S. military is stretched thin due to support for Ukraine and Israel in new conflicts, highlighting the limited capacity of the defense industrial base to supply necessary equipment and weapons. Moreover, our competitors are increasingly cooperating across military, industrial, and economic sectors.
Most critically, the American public, already divided politically and socially, remains alarmingly unaware of the threats facing the United States and is woefully unprepared to support the measures needed to overcome them, per the Commission’s report. And this lack of awareness fundamentally undermines our ability to address any other issues effectively.
Ignorance isn’t bliss
China and Russia observe the political dysfunction and increasing tendencies toward isolationism within both the left and right factions of the United States. They perceive this as an indication that the United States is neither capable nor inclined to impede their ambitions. Ukraine serves as a critical test case for assessing U.S. commitment; however, a definitive conclusion has yet to be reached.
“As chair and vice chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, charged with providing Congress and the president an independent review of the 2022 National Defense Strategy, we recently released a unanimous, bipartisan report,” wrote Jane Harman, the chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, and Eric S. Edelman, the vice chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy via ForeignPolicy.com.
“In this report, we found that the strategy is woefully out of date and insufficient to address the urgent threats. We recommend that the next president make major changes in the overall U.S. approach to national security—at the Defense Department and far beyond”
What is the Commission on the National Defense Strategy?
In 2022, Congress established the Commission on the National Defense Strategy by statute to examine and make recommendations about national defense strategy. The Commission issued a report to Congress, the president, and the American public in the summer of 2024 to describe the U.S. strategic threat environment and to inform future budget requests, legislation, appropriations, and Department of Defense operations and planning.
The U.S. is no longer on another level militarily
For nearly 40 years, the U.S. has been the world’s superpower, exercising unmatched military strength and achieving rapid victories with minimal losses. It’s democratic governance and capitalist economy stood unchallenged globally. This era brought significant international responsibilities and solidified the U. S. as a beacon of stability and progress. Today, the U.S. is arguably still the strongest nation militarily be we don’t reign supreme as we did in the past. We are vulnerable and beatable, and no longer several levels above everyone else.
In a conflict in the Taiwan Strait or South/East China Sea, the U.S. could face defeat due to China’s advanced cyber capabilities. These could disable power grids, halt transportation systems, and hinder personnel and equipment deployment by air and sea, preventing U. S. involvement in Pacific conflicts from the start. This strategy surpasses Russian cyberattacks on U. S. and European infrastructure aimed at disrupting support for Ukraine.
“Analyses and wargames show that China has clear advantages in operations west of the international date line, given its ability to contest U.S. logistics, target U.S. ships, and other platforms at long range, and outproduce the United States and its allies.”
The Russian threat still looms
Hasn’t its war with Ukraine exposed Russia’s capabilities? And hasn’t Russia been battered and weakened?
Maybe, to both questions.
But Russia’s readiness to endure heavy losses and escalate quickly makes it an unpredictable yet highly capable force. Russia, which experienced about 27 million casualties in World War II, is still not encumbered by the number of body bags returning home and is willing to sacrifice 2, 3, or 4 casualties to kill one enemy soldier. In World War II, Russia’s rival, Germany, had only 5.3 to 8 million casualties to Russia’s 27 million.
Second, Russia is unlikely to rest if it achieves its objectives in Ukraine. They would likely invade Poland next and possibly Finland.
Third, Russia, with China’s help, is investing globally through the Belt and Road Initiative and proxy security partnerships like the now-defunct Wagner Group to expand its strategic footprint; and the lack of U. S. military, diplomatic, and investment presence is ceding ground to them.
Fourth, China and Russia’s “no limits” partnership, with North Korea and Iran as junior members, forms the largest anti-Western bloc since World War II. They share munitions, trade in sanctioned goods, and provide diplomatic cover for each other’s misdeeds. Together, they represent the anti-NATO or a new, modern-day Axis alliance.
Coordination among these authoritarian states means a conflict with any of them could quickly become a global war. So, our previous “one theater-plus” force construct, meant to fight in one region and deter aggression elsewhere, is inadequate.
Addressing terrorism, Iran and North Korea
Terrorism persists, with Islamic State affiliates conducting major attacks in Iran, Russia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. North Korea remains aggressive, and Iran nears nuclear capability.
Moreover, the escalating aggression from Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various militant groups throughout the Middle East—intensified by Israel’s military actions in Gaza—clearly demonstrates that the United States must stay actively involved and strategically positioned in the region. Despite policymakers’ and the public’s wish to move on, it is evident that continued engagement is crucial for maintaining stability and addressing these deep-seated conflicts.
Staying ahead of the curve
The relentless pace of technological change presents both challenges and opportunities, but it remains highly questionable whether the U.S. government can adopt externally developed technology swiftly enough. The Commission’s findings suggest this glaring inefficiency underscores the urgent necessity for the next president to radically overhaul national security strategies, moving away from the outdated approaches of the past two administrations.
When it comes to innovation, the story of the Pentagon is both fascinating and urgent. Originally, it was a powerhouse of military-relevant research and development, channeling groundbreaking discoveries directly into weapon systems procurement. Imagine this: in 1960, U.S. defense spending made up a staggering 36 percent of global R&D! Fast forward to 2019, and that figure plummeted to just 3.1 percent. Today, it’s the private sector that’s racing ahead, outstripping the Defense Department in an astonishing 11 out of the 14 technology areas deemed crucial for our success. This shift is not just a statistic; it’s a clarion call for renewed focus and investment in our nation’s defense innovation!
Be proactive and strengthen our allies
The Commission on the National Defense Strategy insists it is essential for the United States to maintain its leadership role on the global stage. This approach helps safeguard national interests, ensures the preservation of a global economic system that benefits the country, and allows it to effectively counter rising authoritarianism.
The United States urgently needs to revive its “all of nation” approach to national security. Remember, it was the State Department—not the Pentagon—that crafted the containment strategy crucial in winning the Cold War and promoting democracy. U.S. manufacturing once supplied the world, while economic aid forged vital partnerships, exported American values, and countered Soviet influence. The public comprehended the threat back then and willingly shouldered the burdens. We must get back to this approach.
Second, the U. S. can’t deter and defeat the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran partnership alone, so we need closer engagement and stronger allies to improve our position. Hence, our approach should emphasize planning and practice with allies, strengthening them diplomatically, industrially, and militarily.
The previously stable Cold War nuclear balance governed by mutual assured destruction seems to be approaching instability today.
CNN’s Michael Smerconish discusses how Americans are distracted by salacious headlines about the 2024 presidential election despite a new report from the Commission on the National Defense Strategy that warns about a “near-term major war” the US could face and numerous dangers abroad.
