Maryland Democrat Senator Ben Cardin, 81, decided not to run for reelection in 2024, setting up a compelling matchup between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and the state’s popular, previous governor, Larry Hogan.
Alsobrooks, the Democrat, is clearly leading in Maryland’s pivotal U.S. Senate race, a testament to voters’ strong preference for Democratic control of the chamber and skepticism about Republican Larry Hogan’s independence from party leaders, as revealed by a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.
The poll indicates that 52 percent of likely voters support Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County Executive, compared to 40 percent for former governor Hogan and 4 percent for Libertarian Mike Scott. This consistent 12-point lead mirrors her previous advantage in September’s poll.
And the Real Clear Politics aggregate of top pollsters has Alsobrooks comfortably ahead by 11.3 percentage points.
Many Marylanders appreciate Hogan’s moderate stance, his skill in bipartisan collaboration, and his willingness to criticize MAGA Republicans.
However, it’s important to consider the broader implications of voting for him. Electing Hogan could potentially shift control of the U.S. Senate to Republicans. And despite the likelihood he’ll oppose some of his party’s legislation as a Senator, he has committed to caucusing with Republicans and supporting them in securing key positions within the Chamber.
Not surprisingly, Hogan, despite trailing in this race, is performing better than his party’s presidential candidate in this predominantly Democratic state. Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a significant margin of 61 percent to 33 percent—nearly matching Joe Biden’s decisive victory margin from 2020.
Maryland’s Senate contest has become the most expensive in its history as Republicans aim to capture this traditionally blue seat. Winning here is crucial for Democrats to maintain their slim majority in the Senate since Republicans are poised to gain seats held by Democrats in West Virginia and Montana while all GOP incumbents are expected to secure reelection according to the Cook Political Report.
In a non-presidential election year without so much political divisiveness and with less at stake, Hogan would have a decent chance to win. However, the “R” beside his name will seal his fate in November.
Prediction: Alsobrooks by 10-15 percent
