Former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 3 points in a CBS News/YouGov Arizona poll, securing 51% to Harris’s 48%, just within the margin of error.
In terms of financial outlook, 46% of Arizona voters prefer Trump’s policies over Harris’s 30%. On the economy, Trump holds a 59% to 40% advantage. Regarding the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump has a significant lead with 79% support compared to Harris’s 20%. And more voters back Trump’s mass deportation plan, with overall support at 55%.
For priority issues like abortion and democracy, Harris leads; she garners 73% on abortion and edges out Trump on democracy with a narrower margin.
Among Latino voters, Harris leads with 56%, though less than Biden’s previous margin.
RCP Average
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) aggregate to top pollsters has Trump ahead by 1.4 percentage points. A similar aggregate had President Joe Biden ahead of Truimp on Election Day 2020 by 0.9 percent. Biden won by 0.3 percent (10,457 votes).
It’s important to consider that while Trafalgar and Insider Advantage often lean Republican, their latest polls show less support for Trump compared to those from NYTimes/Siena and CBS News. This discrepancy should raise concerns for the Harris Campaign. She’s polling worse among a few pollsters that aren’t event right-leaning.
Confidence in Arizona’s election system is low among Trump supporters (9%) compared to Harris’s (59%).
Harris’s chances of winning in Arizona seem to be fading as the days pass. But, there’s still hope as she’s well within the margin of error, overall.
Considering that the state tends to lean right and offers just 11 electoral votes, it might be strategically wise for the Harris Campaign to repurpose efforts on North Carolina and Georgia. Although these states are also presumed to lean right, she isn’t as far behind there in the polls, and each state holds a more significant reward of 16 electoral votes.
Focusing on these areas could maximize the campaign’s impact and potential success.
Arizona Democrat Senate candidate Ruben Gallego is running strong against controversial MAGA opponent Kari Lake, boasting a firm lead of nearly 7 percentage points in RCP’s aggregate. This suggests that a notable number of Arizonans are contemplating splitting their ballot politically.
The CBS News poll surveyed 1, 439 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3. 3 points from Oct. 11-16.
