The 2024 Presidential Election polls were fairly accurate compared to 2016 and 2020, where they highly underestimated support for Donald Trump. This year, most polls had Trump winning a tight race over his opponent, Democrat Kamla Harris, but slightly losing the overall popular vote. In the end, Trump won the Electoral College 312-226 and edged Harris in the popular vote by just 1.55%.
How close was it? Had Harris carried the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she would have won the election. And Trump’s margin of victory in those states was just 1.7%, 1.4%, and 0.9%, respectively. Given the margin of error in polling is usually about +/- 3 percent, the pollsters nailed it, in the electoral college and the battleground states.
Furthermore, consider the Real Clear Politics (RCP) aggregate of leading pollsters, which accurately projected Trump as the winner in 5 out of 7 crucial battleground states. The only exceptions were Wisconsin and Michigan, where it predicted Harris would win by a mere 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. This high level of accuracy demonstrates RCP’s remarkable precision in forecasting the electoral results, making it a reliable source for understanding political trends.
It also shows the pollsters got it right this time…. Well, close enough.
How?
Several pollsters, who have faced the understandable challenges of accurately gauging elections with Donald Trump as a candidate, have shared with Politico they found a way to address this issue of “shy” or “hidden” Trump voters—those who might feel hesitant to disclose their support for the controversial politician as well those distrustful of the media and government. In both 2016 and 2020, polls suggested Trump was struggling against Democratic opponents Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Yet, he triumphed over Clinton in 2016 and narrowly lost to Biden in 2020.
Real Clear Politics Battleground States Predictions
| State | RCP Prediction | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Trump +0.4 | Trump +1.7 |
| Georgia | Trump + 1.3 | Trump +2.2 |
| Nevada | Trump +0.6 | Trump +3.1 | North Carolina | Trump +1.2 | Trump +3.3 | Arizona | Trump +2.8 | Trump +5.5 | Michigan | Harris+0.5 | Trump +1.4 | Wisconsin | Harris +0.4 | Trump +0.9 |
When contacted by major media outlets like The New York Times or The Washington Post, Trump supporters, at much higher rates than supporters of other candidates, are often dismissive and hang up quickly. These same Trump voters are skeptical of experts, the media, and science also tend to distrust pollsters. In several states, this has led them to choose not to engage at all.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres explained, “In the past, we have had a lot of Trump supporters who have simply refused to answer our questions … We call, ‘I’m from the New York Times or The LA Times or The Washington Post, and I’m doing a survey,’ and they go, ‘Well, to hell with you,’ click.”
Democratic pollster Paul Maslin told Politico, “The very same Trump voters who don’t trust experts, don’t trust the media, don’t trust science — also don’t trust pollsters. We found in several states that simply, they were opting out.” Politico’s Irie Sentner reported:
Politico’s Irie Sentner reported:
In order to correct course, researchers this year “jumped through a lot of hoops,” Ayres said, in order to reach greater numbers of Trump voters and more accurately predict the outcome. They adjusted modeling of the likely electorate, weighted more heavily certain demographic groups, and adjusted their outreach strategy to non-college-educated voters, who tend to lean Republican.
That manifested in final polling aggregates showing five of the swing states in a dead heat, with Trump having comfortable leads in Arizona and Nevada. The polls also accurately forecasted Trump’s strength with white voters and Harris’ softness with Black and Latino men, which contributed to Trump’s decisive victory. The president-elect ended up sweeping all of the battlegrounds, an outcome pollsters attributed to undecided voters splitting unevenly — and perhaps surprisingly — toward Trump.
Republican pollster Brent Buchanan observed that while undecided voters typically lean Democratic, this year saw an unusual shift where these late-deciding individuals ultimately supported Trump.
Sentner concluded: “It’s a Trump issue, not a Republican issue,” said Ayres, who has four decades of GOP polling experience. Looking toward 2028 — the first presidential election without Trump in a dozen years — Eyres predicted “We can reasonably expect whatever problems we had getting Trump voters to go away.”
Will they go away? Or will we see another candidate like Trump in 2028?