With only three days left until the election, there is a palpable sense of unease within former President Donald Trump’s campaign regarding his chances in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state he has successfully won in the past two presidential elections. When questioned about this concern, a Trump campaign official candidly expressed their thoughts.
“If there’s one state that could bite you in the a–, it’s North Carolina,” the official said.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ team now feels hopeful about North Carolina after recent concerns. This shift underscores the emotional ups and downs of campaigning. Both campaigns are actively engaging voters in this critical state. As tensions rise, emotions run high. Even President Trump is expanding efforts to new areas like Virginia and New Mexico in these final days to broaden his reach.
He’s committed to returning to North Carolina every day until the election. And like many battlegrounds, North Carolina polling averages show a margin of error, giving Trump a slight edge.
But, the political landscape has undergone a profound change in the final months of the race, following the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene on the western part of the state. Entire towns have been destroyed, and many people, particularly in rural areas, have been displaced.
This tragedy has been compounded by a flood of misinformation spread by Trump, causing concern among Democrats that it might be insurmountable despite efforts from his party to correct it.
But Democrats have optimism and know that with a win in North Carolina, Harris could lose Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and still win the presidency. This is why the Tarheel State is crucial.
Since the 1960s, the southern region of the US, including North Carolina, has consistently supported Republican candidates in presidential elections. This trend is evident as the state has only chosen a Democrat twice in over five decades: once in 1976 and again in 2008. In that latter instance, Democratic candidate Barack Obama narrowly defeated Republican John McCain by approximately 14,000 votes. This historical pattern underscores a strong Republican inclination but also highlights moments when change is possible with compelling Democratic leadership.
PoliticsRSS Facts: Democrat Roy Cooper has served as North Carolina’s governor since 2017 and Josh Stein, another Democrat, is heavily favored to win the state’s gubernatorial race on November 5.
According to Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, North Carolina presents a compelling case with its two distinct political personas.
“North Carolina is one half Virginia, one half Alabama,” Jackson told Al Jazeera, juxtaposing two southern states: one more moderate, the other deep red. “It’s a state you win on the margins.”
Perhaps it’s all about turnout?
A Republican strategist involved in North Carolina’s voter turnout efforts said Trump should feel emboldened by his party’s strong early turnout.
“Before this election, Republicans have never had a cumulative lead in early vote,” the person told NBC News. “However, this is not just vote-shifting. We studied this. Republicans in North Carolina have had less of a cannibalization rate,” he added, referring to the rate of high-propensity voters who are simply voting earlier.
But, not so fast… This election’s Republican early-voting surge is partly due to strong messaging on voting early. As of Friday, Republicans lead Democrats in North Carolina. However, unaffiliated voters form a large portion of early voters, and their preferences remain largely unknown.
PoliticsRSS Fact: North Carolina is racially diverse and its demographics closely mimic national stats: White 61.6 %; Black alone 12.4%; Hispanic 18.7%; Asian alone 6%.
Democrats offer a compelling and distinct perspective on the initial figures, providing insights that could reshape our understanding of the data.
“Republicans are definitely turning out at a clip slightly better than Democrats. But … my read is that early vote is 55% female, and every single poll shows that women are supporting Democrats and posting their largest gender gap in North Carolina history,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson via NBC News.
The Republicans have a good reason to be optimistic but the Democrats have an even better one.
Jackson added that suburban voters were voting at higher rates than their registration share by 2 points and that in every competitive election since the fall of Roe v. Wade, Democrats outperformed polling with women, unaffiliated voters, suburban voters, and Republican women.
“That’s why I’m an optimist about this election,” Jackson said. “I think the fact that Trump is visiting North Carolina more than any state over the last few days says they are seeing the same thing in the early voting numbers that I am and they are concerned.”
North Carolina Democrats are confident in their strong ground game. Since Harris entered the race, voter registration has surged, and her rallies draw impressive crowds, including 10,000 attendees last Saturday. While Republicans note lower Black turnout as a concern for Democrats, strategists argue it’s consistent with pre-Obama figures—what they expected. This groundwork positions them well for success.
PoliticsRSS Fact: In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters (36.7 percent) outnumber Democrats (32.5 percent) and Republicans (30 percent).
In Charlotte on Saturday, Harris pleaded for voters to get to the polls and to turn the page on Trump, whom she characterized as divisive.
“North Carolina, I’m here to ask for your vote. … I pledge to seek common ground and commonsense solutions to the challenges you face,” the vice president said. “I pledge to you to listen to experts, to listen to people who disagree with me. Because you see, unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy.”
Given North Carolina’s history and the recent polling, Trump has the edge here – But the surging female turnout, Obama’s win here in 2008, and recent Democrat gubernatorial success make Harris a very strong underdog.
