Was Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election win truly a mandate for change? As the vote count nears completion, it’s clear that the answer is a definitive ‘No.’
With approximately 98 percent of the votes counted, Trump holds 49.96 percent of the popular vote compared to Kamala Harris’s 48.24 percent. Considering that most remaining votes are in left-leaning states like California, Maryland, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, and Massachusetts, it’s reasonable to project Trump’s final tally will settle between 49.5 and 49.8 percent.
Once the election is certified, it will become evident that more folks voted against Trump than for him. While these numbers won’t impact legislative or executive actions directly, they certainly dispel any notion of a landslide victory for Trump.
Moreover, Democrats can take some comfort in knowing Harris is likely to come within 1.4 to 1.7 percent of Trump in the popular vote.
New @CookPolitical: Trump has fallen below 50% of the popular vot. With 152.7M votes counted, he leads Harris 49.99%-48.22%. https://t.co/TOY7uUr6HL pic.twitter.com/ovso9aqbue
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 16, 2024
Conversely, it’s crucial to recognize that while Trump might secure an additional two million votes compared to his 2020 performance, Harris is expected to fall short of 2020 by a significant margin—potentially receiving 6.5 to 7 million fewer votes than President Joe Biden. This stark contrast underscores the urgent need for Democrats to prioritize boosting voter turnout in future elections. By focusing on engaging and mobilizing voters, Democrats can work towards closing this gap and strengthening their electoral prospects.
House
Although Republicans maintained control of the House, there’s a real possibility they could lose a seat or two. Several House races remain undecided, and while Republicans entered Election 2024 with a 222–213 advantage, our projections indicate that Democrats are likely to gain two seats. This would result in a narrow 220-215 margin, which is undeniably slim by any measure.
Given the slim margin, it’s quite likely that extreme MAGA legislation will encounter substantial hurdles in the House.
If our projection holds, just three Republican defectors can effectively stop these proposals in their tracks, underscoring that their passage is anything but certain. And even if Democrats fall a seat or two short of our projection, they should have little difficulty identifying at least five moderate Republicans from districts with centrist or left-leaning tendencies who would stand against far-right measures. Keep in mind, when Republicans passed the massive Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, they outnumbered Democrats by a whopping 47 Members, 241 to 194.
U.S. Senate / Gubernatorial
Indeed, Republicans secured four additional seats in the Senate and took control of the Chamber. However, two of their flips — in deep-red Montana and West Virginia — were expected. Notwithstanding, the Republican flips in Pennsylvania and Ohio were pivotal, as they represented major setbacks for Democrats beyond the GOP wins in expected Republican strongholds.
Still, it’s important to recognize that Democrats demonstrated resilience by winning four of seven U.S. Senate seats in states that Trump carried—Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona—while also claiming a gubernatorial victory in North Carolina, another state Trump won.
This clearly demonstrates that, even with Republican gains, battleground voters propelled Democrats to crucial victories in statewide races.
Summary
Ultimately, it’s clear that the Democrats faced two significant vote-related challenges from the start: insufficient voter turnout among their supporters and the issue of split tickets in statewide races. As a result of the latter, many individuals who backed Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial positions ended up casting their votes for Trump rather than Harris in the presidential race.
Election 2024 was indeed a clear victory for the Republicans, and that’s undeniable. However, it’s important to recognize that it wasn’t the overwhelming defeat some social media narratives suggest. Given the challenging factors at play—such as concerns about the economy, President Biden’s 39.7 percent favorability rating, and 72 percent dissatisfaction with the country’s direction—Democrats performed quite admirably as the incumbent party.
Democrats have significant tasks ahead, particularly in refining and expanding their messaging. However, Election 2024 highlighted several promising developments for them that shouldn’t be overlooked.
(Main pic: U.S. Sen Jacky Rosen, Democrat, Nevada, overcame a strong challenge by Sam Brown in 2024 to retain her seat)
