Earlier today, I warned Democrats on an X thread they shouldn’t be too optimistic with a post that revealed Vice President Kamala Harris was winning the early vote tally in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. After all, in 2020, Democrats mailed in their ballots and voted early in person at a much higher rate than Republicans, who were much more likely to vote in person on Election Day.
Well, she's supposed to be leading with early voters. I want her to win, but am not sure this is something to be excited about. How is doing compared to Biden in 2020? That's a better indicator.
— PoliticsRSS.com (@CultureWar24) October 16, 2024
However, recent data suggests that might have changed.
Virginia, not a core battleground this year, has seen significant mail-in and early in-person voting with hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots already cast. We are monitoring trends to predict election night outcomes; in Virginia, consistent voters are heavily using early voting, especially in Republican-supporting areas.
This may indicate a national pattern as other states begin early voting as Virginia’s early voting suggests the gap between Republican and Democratic counties might be smaller in 2024 compared to 2020.
In 2020, about 63% of Virginia’s votes were cast before Election Day with notable differences: 70% absentee ballots in Democratic areas versus about 50% in Republican ones.
For 2024 so far, more absentee ballots have been returned from Republican-leaning areas than Democratic ones. This trend shows that up to almost 22% of potential votes are already cast via absentee ballots in Republican areas compared to about 12% in Democratic ones.
One reason for Democratic areas voting later could be “satellite voting locations” opening later in October. These additional sites make early voting more accessible in populous Democratic-leaning areas. We’ll monitor if these regional differences balance out or reverse as satellite voting begins.
Critical: If Democratic turnout lags behind Republican areas after satellite voting begins, we may need to investigate if consistent Democratic voters are less mobilized this election cycle. And if that’s the case, it’ll be bad news for Democrat candidates.
Observation
Republicans may have turned out in large numbers to vote in person on Election Day 2020 because of their desire to protest government-imposed safety measures amid the COVID-19 pandemic. With the pandemic now subsiding, the motivation for Republicans to cast their votes on Election Day and in person has significantly diminished. This potential shift suggests that alternative voting methods could become more appealing and widely accepted among Republican voters moving forward.
