The stock market is strongly hinting at a Kamala Harris presidency, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reflecting a 72% probability of her victory in November. Additionally, recent data from an Emerson College poll reveals that a significant number of previously undecided voters have chosen to back Harris over the past month. These indicators suggest a compelling momentum in her favor that cannot be overlooked.
Why the stock market’s bet matters:
The Dow’s performance suggests a strong chance for Harris to win, according to finance analyst Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch.
Historically, when the Dow’s year-to-date gain by mid-October exceeds 10%—as it does this year with a 13. 4% rise—the incumbent party wins 78% of the time. Hulbert notes that the stock market is a reliable predictor in over 30 elections. This contrasts with electronic futures markets, which currently give Harris a 42.1% chance. The stock market’s current surge signals optimism for Harris’ chances as it often indicates economic sentiment.
Winning undecided voters:
The  Emerson College poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, within the margin of error. Undecided voters are leaning toward Harris, with 60% of recent deciders supporting her, compared to 36% for Trump. “Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump, while recent deciders support Harris,” said polling director Spencer Kimball. The 3% who might change their minds currently favor Harris, which could be crucial in battleground states.
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