It’s concerning to see Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Kamala Harris among Arab American voters, especially given his strong, almost fanatical support for Israel’s government. According to the latest Arab News/YouGov poll, 45% of Arab Americans are leaning toward Trump, while 43% favor Harris.
Additionally, 4% plan to vote for Jill Stein, 6% remain undecided, and 2% have chosen not to disclose their preference. These findings echo an earlier survey by the Arab American Institute showing similar levels of support for both candidates. The close numbers and potential implications are certainly cause for worry for Democrats as we approach election time.
Why is this so concerning?
In October 2020, according to the American Arab Institute, 59% of Arabs said they’d cast their ballots for then-Democratic candidate Joseph Biden with only 35% voting to reelect President Trump.
Consider this: Michigan, alone, is home to an estimated 240,000 Arab Americans. And Georgia, where President Joe Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020, is home to more than 57,000 Arab Americans.
In a close election, thousands of votes matter. Hence, the estimated 144,000 Arab votes Biden received in 2020 may drop to 103,000 for Harris. And Trump, who is believed to have received 84,000 Arab American votes in Michigan in 2020 could get as many as 108,000 in November. That would be a positive 65,000 vote swing for Trump in the Wolverine State. (Biden won there by a mere 165,000 votes).
The conflict in Gaza challenges both candidates’ efforts to court Arab Americans. Within the Democratic Party, tensions over Israel have intensified. Kamala Harris balances supporting Biden’s ceasefire efforts, asserting Israel’s defense rights, and expressing concern about Palestinian casualties. Trump avoids specifics on his approach but claims the October 7th attack wouldn’t have happened under his leadership and uses “Palestinian” as an insult against Democrats he views as not pro-Israel enough.
The bottom line: If Trump is elected again and has his way, there may be no Palestine a year from now.
Former President Donald Trump is positioning himself as Israel’s steadfast “protector” and urging Jewish voters to reconsider supporting Vice President Harris. During his address at the Israeli-American Council summit earlier this year in Washington, D.C., Trump emphasized his unwavering support for Israel and passionately argued that without his leadership, the future of the Jewish state was at risk.
“It’s total annihilation — that’s what you’re talking about,” Trump said. “You have a big protector in me. You don’t have a protector on the other side,” Trump said via NPR.
In 2020, Donald Trump introduced his long-anticipated Mideast peace plan, standing alongside a visibly pleased Benjamin Netanyahu. This proposal reflected the Israeli leader’s firm and nationalist perspectives but unfortunately did not meet the aspirations of the Palestinian people. The plan outlined a fragmented Palestinian state, ceding significant areas of the West Bank to Israel. It aligns with Israel on critical issues that have complicated previous peace efforts, such as borders and the status of Jerusalem and Jewish settlements while imposing nearly insurmountable conditions for Palestinians to achieve their desired statehood.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas expressed deep disappointment by dismissing the plan as “nonsense” and pledged to oppose it. In contrast, Netanyahu hailed it as a “historic breakthrough,” comparing its significance to Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948.
“We say 1,000 no’s to the Deal of the Century,” Abbas said via the Associated Press, using a nickname for Trump’s proposal.
“We will not kneel and we will not surrender,” he said, adding that the Palestinians would resist the plan through “peaceful, popular means.”
Harris is set to campaign on Monday alongside Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney in three crucial battleground states, including Michigan, which has a substantial Arab-American community. Meanwhile, Trump made a direct appeal to Arab Americans by cautioning on Truth Social that electing Harris could lead to the Middle East experiencing turmoil for the next forty years.
