Tara Palmeri: “We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.”
“But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.”
Margaret Hoover, a seasoned GOP strategist from the Bush era, parlayed that concern among Republicans on Wednesday: The internal turnout and early voting data are causing significant unease.
“I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers, you’re looking at your own internals,” Hoover said. “And I honestly think their internals are actually giving them pause.”
Hoover pointed out that campaigns possess the resources to conduct more advanced polling operations compared to media outlets.
Sounds great. Happy to help. pic.twitter.com/0S0KwvhInQ
— Ms. M 🪷 Read Project 2025 (@MsMalarkey24) October 31, 2024
“They’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there is a real groundswell in the early vote, there is real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure,” Hoover noted.
Are the polls underestimating female voter participation? And are they underestimating female support for Vice President Harris?
Per Quinnipiac surveys from five battleground states on October 9, 16, and 23, 2024, Harris is performing just as well or better among women than Trump is among men. For example, in North Carolina, Harris is +25 among women while Trump enjoys the same advantage among men. On the surface, it looks equal until you consider these three facts 1) there are more women voters than men, 2) women usually vote at a higher rate, and 3) women are probably voting in this election at an even higher rate than the norm.
Even in Wisconsin where Harris is +19 among women and Trump +20 among men, the one percent differential, if accurate, won’t be enough to offset the higher volume of women voters.
“The women’s vote will be decisive this election,” Katherine Tate, a Brown University political scientist, said via Vox. “If Harris wins, it will be because women elected her.”
