Of the eight battleground states, Wisconsin and Iowa will be the ones to watch closest heading into Election Night.
Vice President Kamala Harris is looking relatively strong in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, three left-leaning states that President Joe Biden carried in 2020. And based on the latest polling, we think she’ll win them.
Conversely, former President Donald Trump is demonstrating stronger polling performance in the traditionally conservative states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. For Harris to secure a victory in any of these states, it would require a minor electoral upset.
As a result, winning the Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin is Harris’s best path to victory. If she secures all three states, there’s a good chance she’ll win the election. In fact, she could afford to lose Nevada but still win the race if she carries the Blue Wall.
Moreover, if Harris wins Wisconsin, the odds of her also winning Michigan and Pennsylvania surge.
Problem.
Wisconsin is shaky. Over the past two elections, no state’s polling has underestimated Trump more than Wisconsin. President Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.7 percent in 2020 while Trump won the state by roughly the same margin four years earlier. However, the Democrat candidate was heavily favored both times.
In 2016, Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton, heading into Election Day, was 6.5 percentage points ahead of Trump in RCP’s average. It was a comfortable lead and seemingly well beyond the margin of error. In fact, Clinton won all 70 of the RCP 2016 Trump vs Clinton Wisconsin polls. But Clinton would lose Wisconsin and the election.
And in 2020, Biden, per the RCP average, took a 6.7 percentage point lead into the Election Night only to win by less than one percentage point. While RCP correctly predicted the winner this time, the outcome was far from what experts expected. Of the 70 RCP Biden vs Trump Wisconsin polls, Biden won 64, Trump won 3, and 3 were tied. Nevertheless, the result was a nail-biter.
The Real Clear Politics aggregate of leading pollsters shows Harris with a slim 0.4 percent lead heading into Election Night. While it’s true that pollsters have adjusted their methodologies since 2020 to more accurately capture the opinions of Trump supporters, it raises an important question about the reliability of these polls. Considering past discrepancies, it’s important to acknowledge Democrats can’t depend on Wisconsin as it’s arguably less left-leaning than Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania and Michigan but fails to win the Badger State, her next best option to win the presidency would be to defeat Trump in Nevada and Iowa. Harris is running strong in Nevada while Iowa, much like Wisconsin, is a big, fat question mark.
Late last week, the highly respected Selzer poll revealed Vice President Harris leading former President Trump by a margin of 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa. This data is particularly significant as Selzer has been quite accurate over the years. However, that’s not the only reason to watch Iowa.
President Barack Obama’s impressive victory in the Hawkeye State by 9 percentage points in 2008 sets a compelling precedent, and this year, Harris’s momentum certainly mirrors that of Obama during his first presidential campaign.
Deja vu anyone?
Considering Iowa’s historical voting patterns, the latest poll results, and Harris’s current surge in support among women, Harris securing a win in Iowa is not just possible—it’s highly plausible.
To summarize:
1. Watch the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin first. A Harris sweep there likely wins her the presidency.
2. If the Badget State goes for Trump, turn your attention to Nevada and Iowa. Winning both of those states will likely propel Harris to the presidency so long as she carries the other Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.
3. If Harris doesn’t win in the above scenarios, it’ll be imperative for her to achieve victory in at least one if not all three of the remaining right-leaning states—Arizona, Georgia, and/or North Carolina. And if she loses all other battlegrounds, winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina would likely cause an electoral tie, 269-269. In that case, the race would get kicked to congressional delegations and Trump would have the edge.
