Since the 2022 midterm elections, over 17.8 million new voters have registered nationwide, as reported by TargetSmart. This surge in voter registration is significant and worth noting: nearly half of these new registrants are Democrats, about a third are Republicans, and around 17% have chosen to remain unaffiliated.
Tom Bonier, a Democrat and senior adviser to TargetSmart, provided an insightful analysis of the figures, highlighting what valuable information can be extracted from them.
“It’s not going to tell us who’s going to win, but the polls are telling us that the race is very close,” Bonier said via CBS News. “I don’t expect to see anything between now and Election Day that will change that.”
“It’s going to be a close election, so the question is, who’s going to come out? Where is the intensity? Where is the enthusiasm? The polls aren’t always very good at capturing that element. And so, voter registration data has been historically a pretty good predictor of which groups are surging in intensity.”
According to Bonier, the most significant surge in new voter registrations among Democrats occurred right after Joe Biden announced his decision to step back from the race in July. This period marked the rise of Harris as the party’s presumptive nominee, highlighting a pivotal moment that energized and mobilized Democratic supporters. This trend underscores how strategic leadership decisions can galvanize voter engagement and strengthen party momentum.
“Frankly, before that, Democratic registration didn’t look that great,” he added.
PoliticsRSS.com previously highlighted the potential for young voters to make history by participating in record numbers in Election 2024. If this happens, it could profoundly influence the outcome, favoring Vice President Harris and Democrats across the board. Moreover, this surge in youth turnout would suggest that current polling may be skewed to the right.
Data firm TargetSmart has tallied more than 17.8 million new voter registrations since the 2022 midterm elections, of which, about half are Democrats and a third are Republicans.
— CBS News (@CBSNews) October 16, 2024
"The question is, who is going to come out?" says Tom Bonier, senior adviser at TargetSmart, as he… pic.twitter.com/hkMeiGB3ua
