Last weekend, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll captured the political spotlight by suggesting Vice President Harris led former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in the Hawkeye State, a result that surprised many. Yet, amidst this buzz, another equally surprising poll went unnoticed.
Earlier this month, Fort Hays State University released its insightful Fall Kansas Speaks survey and the findings were compelling: Per that poll, 43.2% of registered voters expressed their intention to vote for Harris, while 48.2% showed support for Trump.
A mere 5 percentage points separated Harris and Trump…. In ruby red Kansas. Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020 by 20 and 15 percentage points, respectively.
While this poll could be an outlier, it could also suggest that Trump’s margin of victory in Kansas might be considerably less than was the case in 2020. And if Harris has made inroads in Kansas, a very rural state that is 86 percent White, what could that suggest about the swing states, including Florida?
And what could it suggest about Iowa?
Perhaps a shift in women’s sentiments made this poll close?
In 2020, the same poll had Trump ahead of then-candidate Joe Biden by 14.4 percent among likely Kansas voters, 52 to 37.6. Hence, it was very accurate.
Consider the impact if the Trump Campaign revealed their candidate was trailing Harris by only 5 points in the heavily blue states of New Jersey or Illinois. This scenario underscores just how significant this development truly is.
If you’re Team Trump, you should find this poll just as alarming as Iowa’s Selzer poll. Furthermore, the findings from the Hays Poll lend credibility to the Selzer Poll, indicating that the latter might not be an anomaly. This alignment between polls could underscore a significant trend that cannot be ignored.
The recent Hays Poll also provides compelling evidence that Kansas voters are feeling more optimistic about the economy compared to three years ago, which likely contributes to the increased support for Democrats. The percentage of people who believe the Kansas economy is weakening has decreased significantly, from 43.7 percent in 2022 to just 37.6 percent this year. This shift in perception underscores a growing confidence that aligns with Democratic policies and leadership, making a strong case for their continued support.
“Kansans’ rating of the Kansas economy has become more positive in the past three years,” said Jian Sun, co-author of the Docking Institute survey, via Newsweek.
“The percentage of Kansans rating the Kansas economy as excellent or very good increased from 16.1 percent in 2022 to 21.1 percent in 2024.”
In addition, the survey suggests that Kansas voters’ views on abortion may not align with Republican lawmakers in the state. This year, Kansas lawmakers directed funds to anti-abortion groups and required doctors to report patients’ reasons for seeking abortions. This requirement is on hold due to an ongoing legal case. Meanwhile, the survey showed just over 50% of Kansans opposed the new laws, while under 25% supported them. Those believing lawmakers should impose no abortion restrictions increased by 4%, with around 55% agreeing and about 29% disagreeing.
Abortion is a pivotal issue for the Democrats in this campaign, especially resonating with female voters. Vice President Harris has consistently demonstrated her unwavering commitment to reproductive rights, spearheading the Democratic Party’s initiatives on this critical matter. Earlier this year, she launched a nationwide campaign advocating for reproductive freedoms, underscoring her dedication to protecting these essential rights. Her leadership and advocacy make it clear why supporting the Democratic stance on this issue is crucial for safeguarding women’s autonomy and health care choices.
Trump, on the other hand, has faced significant challenges in distancing himself from the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to repeal Roe v. Wade, a move closely linked to his appointment of three conservative justices during his presidency. Furthermore, he has advocated for abortion rights to be determined at the state level and remains ambiguous about whether he would veto a national abortion ban.
Lastly, a significant majority in the Kansas Speaks Poll expressed support for crucial initiatives such as expanding Medicaid and legalizing marijuana.
While Kansas might not traditionally be seen as a swing state, recent events suggest a shift that could make upcoming races more competitive than ever before. Moreover, if the recent Hays Poll is anywhere near accurate, it could spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Trump in the swing states on Election Night.
It’s worth noting that Kansas hasn’t awarded its electoral votes to a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
