Since the last presidential election, 16 million new people have become eligible to vote. Are they immigrants? No! They are American-born citizens who are newly eligible to cast a ballot. Hence, every year, over 4 million Americans celebrate their 18th birthday.
In the three years and 10 plus months since Joe Biden and Donald Trump last faced each other in a presidential election, nearly 16 million Americans have reached voting age for the first time, while 10 million others have left the electorate permanently.
Voters entering the political scene at any given time introduce a distinct set of values compared to those they are replacing. Occasionally, these differences are minor, resulting in only marginal changes to America’s political direction. However, there are instances when the differences are significant enough to fundamentally alter the electorate, with such shifts often persisting for several election cycles. Many experts from various political backgrounds suggest that 2024 could mark the beginning of one of these substantial transformations.
Case in point: According to exit polls.in 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden secured a significant victory among young voters, capturing 60 percent of the votes from those aged 18-29, while Trump garnered only 36 percent. However, following a record youth turnout in the 2020 elections, a recent Harvard Institute of Politics poll indicates that fewer Americans aged 18 to 29 intended to vote in the 2024 elections. This decline was attributed, in part, to widespread dissatisfaction with both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Research indicates that there are notable differences between the current crop of younger voters and older voters. Younger voters tend to be less White, less religious, and less affluent compared to their older counterparts.
Furthermore, they are more influenced by specific issues such as environmental protection, gun control, and racial justice. Unlike older voters who may be more affected by traditional media and their immediate communities, younger voters are increasingly swayed by social media platforms and popular culture figures like Taylor Swift.
Over the past four national elections, the youngest voting bloc has consistently supported Democrats over Republicans at significantly higher rates compared to other age groups. Historical data indicates that even when examining older voters’ behavior in their 20s, recent younger voters have demonstrated a more liberal stance than their predecessors.
Enter Kamala Harris.
The current vice president is sparking a wave of excitement among young voters! In fact, according to an eye-opening UCLA study, nearly half of Gen Z respondents admitted they had zero motivation to vote in the 2024 presidential election before Kamala Harris was nominated. But now, thanks to Harris’ inspiring presence, a third of that group is fired up and ready to cast their votes for her!
Over 120K new registrants in Georgia over last month (via L2)
— Kabir K. (@kabir_here) September 24, 2024
They're disproportionately young (no surprise) — 50% under 30 vs. 20% among all RVs — and mostly voters of color
Among counties with largest % increase are Gwinnett (ATL suburbs) and majority-black Richmond (Augusta) pic.twitter.com/J6H69pU0Ha
Second, Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris for president, shared on her Instagram just minutes after the ABC debate with Donald Trump concluded, has electrified young voters. Since this powerful endorsement, online searches for voter registration have absolutely skyrocketed. Fans spanning from Millennials to Gen Z-ers are buzzing with excitement, declaring that this is exactly the boost the Harris campaign needed.
Voter registration among young Hispanics has surged over the past two months, a trend that María Teresa Kumar, president and CEO of Voto Latino, attributes largely to the growing enthusiasm for Vice President Harris. Kumar explained to The Hill that Harris is resonating deeply with the under-40 demographic, tapping into a powerful cultural phenomenon. This surge in voter engagement underscores the significant impact of her influence and highlights an exciting shift in political participation among young Hispanics.
“For older voters and for donors coming in, it’s like, ‘We could actually beat Trump.’ I think for young people, it’s a genuine, authentic enthusiasm. And I say this because … the moment she announced, we saw young voters tick up,” Kumar said.
“It was nuts. So we were registering roughly 60 to 100 voters a day on Friday. On Monday, it jumped to 3,000. By [the next] Friday, it was 8,000. It was super exciting. Night and day. It’s a very cool chart.”
According to numbers from Voto Latino, which targets young Latinos for registration, the group facilitated 36,000 registrations in the six months leading up to July 21. In the weeks since, Voto Latino has registered 120,000 additional voters.
A New York Times/Siena poll of presidential battleground states in August revealed some exciting news: Vice President Harris held an impressive 8-point lead over Trump among voters aged 18-29. This comes after a previous poll in May showed Trump with a slight edge over President Biden before he ended his candidacy.
But Harris is just the DEI candidate, right?
For young people considering voting for Harris, her identity as a woman of color isn’t the primary driving force. Remarkably, 82.7% of Gen Z respondents highlighted other compelling reasons for their support. They mentioned agreeing with her stance on most issues, finding her an exciting candidate who inspires hope, and appreciating what they’ve seen about her on social media. These factors clearly demonstrate that Harris resonates with young voters beyond just her racial or gender identity.
If you’re over 40, step back and consider this: For young people today who grew up seeing Barack Obama in the White House, diversity feels natural and expected. These findings suggest a hopeful shift, showing that the next generation is moving away from identity politics and polarization. It’s heartening to think they may be leading us towards an exciting new era of collaboration and consensus across party lines. This potential for unity brings a sense of optimism for our future.
But young folks don’t vote
Statista found that 48 percent of young Americans 18-24 participated in the voting process in 2020, an increase of nearly 9 percentage points (39.4%) from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. However, the national average was 61.3 percent and the 18-24 demographic was by far the least active.
Will voters 18 to 24 catch other demographics in 2024? If their participation is even comparable to the closest, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election will result in a lock for Harris.
