Although the Republican presidential candidate has won North Carolina 10 of the last 11 races, the Tarheel state is a legitimate battleground state in 2024.
Why is North Carolina so key?
… With its 16 electoral votes, a win there for Democrat nominee Kamala Harris would mightily decrease the odds of winning for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Should Harris win North Carolina, Trump would have to carry all the heavily red states as well as all four toss-ups Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
That stated, North Carolina’s importance, overall, is still secondary to Pennsylvania’s (19 electoral votes) – BUT, a win in North Carolina gives Harris a clear and realistic path to victory even if she loses the all-important Keystone state.
And by carrying North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Harris could lose Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin or Michigan and still win the race.
Polling
The Real Clear Politics (RCP) aggregate of top pollsters was fairly accurate with their North Carolina polling in 2020. It had Trump 0.2 percentage points ahead of then-Democrat nominee Joe Biden on Election Day. Trump won the state by 1.3 percentage points. And in 2016, the RCP polling aggregate had Trump 1 percentage point ahead of then-Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump won the state by 3.7 percentage points. As a result, we can assume there’s a slight left lean in North Carolina polling.
Pollsters to Watch
Pollsters Trafalgar Group (R) and Rasmussen Reports, both right leaners, were the most accurate in North Carolina in 2020. And in 2016, Trafalgar Group (R) and Remmington Research were the most precise in the same state.
Takeaways
As of today, August 25, Trump has a 0.9 percent lead over Harris in RCP polling but the latter has won the two most recent polls.
Given the North Carolina polling appears to have a slight left lean, Harris’ Campaign should want its candidate to have at least a +2 percentage point lead in RCP’s polling aggregate heading into Election Day.
And if Harris can pull even with Trump in a late October/early November Trafalgar Group poll, she could be the slight favorite to win in North Carolina as Trafalgar leans slightly right.
So, Democrats probably shouldn’t get too confident in Harris winning North Carolina unless or until her RCP average is +2 or more, or Trafalgar has Harris winning or the race tied.
Should Harris lose North Carolina, Pennsylvania would be a must-win.
