Jon Ralston, a veteran journalist, leader of The Nevada Independent, and an authority on Nevada politics, noted a significant trend in the Silver State: More Republicans submitted ballots than Democrats in the first three days of early voting and mail-in ballot counting for the first time since 2008. In all, Republicans lead by about 6,000 ballots or roughly 2%.
In Clark County, home of Las Vegas, Democrats’ lead grew to approximately 6,500 but rural areas exceeded their expected share by nearly four percentage points, presumably countering that surplus.
“The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting,” Raiston said via The Hill.
He emphasized that Monday marked a pivotal moment for Republicans in Nevada, highlighting their 2-point turnout advantage with nearly 250,000 votes already cast. This figure, he argued, represents close to a fifth of the total expected vote, underscoring the significant momentum and potential impact on the election outcome.
However, analysts, including Raiston, have wisely advised against placing too much trust in early vote data for predicting final election outcomes, as each election presents unique dynamics.
Although this data indicates party affiliation, it doesn’t disclose individual voting choices, leaving room for unexpected cross-party votes. Therefore, it’s crucial to approach early vote data with caution and consider the broader context before drawing conclusions about election results.
Normally, this data would likely be better for Republicans than Democrats. However, we’re starting to see a shift in the electorate with more Republicans willing to vote Democrat, especially when that Republican candidate is as controversial as Donald Trump. That stated, at the moment and in Nevada, you’d still probably want to be the Trump Campaign instead of the Harris Campaign.
“A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions,” Ralston said via The Hill.
Several things:
1. Republicans, Trump included, are encouraging early voting this year despite discouraging it in 2020 and 2022. As a result, too much emphasis shouldn’t be placed on early Republican turnout.
2. In 2008, the last time Republicans submitted more ballots than Democrats in the first three days of voting, Democrat Barack Obama cruised to an easy 12.5 percent win in Nevada, undoubtedly receiving some Republican support in the process.
3. As mentioned above, we expect a higher-than-usual number of Republicans to support the Democrat presidential candidate in 2024 versus previous years.
4. And lastly, Independents comprise Nevads’s largest voting bloc. How they sway may determine the outcome of the presidential race in Nevada and elsewhere.
As of the morning of October 22, Trump maintains a 0.7 percent lead in Nevada in the Real Clear Politics aggregate of top pollsters. Of particular note, of the last seven Nevada polls, Harris has won three, Trump two and there have been two ties. In addition, at least three of those pollsters are Republican-friendly.
Nevada stands as one of the pivotal battleground states poised to shape the outcome of the election. Its significance is further underscored by a fiercely competitive Senate race featuring incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and her challenger, Republican Sam Brown. The stakes are high, and Nevada’s role in this political landscape could be decisive.
Takeaway: While Republicans may appear to be in a favorable position in Nevada, I caution them about becoming too excited too soon for the four reasons listed above.
