Wisconsin takes pride in being the battlegroundiest state in the country. And currently, Vice President and Democrat nominee Kamala Harris leads Republican former President Donald Trump there by a percentage point in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) aggregate of top pollsters.
President Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.7 percent in 2020 while Trump won the state by roughly the same margin four years earlier. The U.S. Presidential Election has been incredibly close in Wisconsin the last two races and the pollsters were far off the mark both times.
In 2016, Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton, heading into Election Day, was 6.5 percentage points ahead of Trump in RCP’s average. It was a comfortable lead and seemingly well beyond the margin of error. In fact, Clinton won all 70 of the RCP 2016 Trump vs Clinton Wisconsin polls. But Clinton would lose Wisconsin and the election.
And in 2020, Biden, per the RCP average, took a 6.7 percentage point lead into the Election Night only to win by less than one percentage point. While RCP correctly predicted the winner this time, the outcome was far from what experts expected. Of the 70 RCP Biden vs Trump Wisconsin polls, Biden won 64, Trump won 3, and 3 were tied. Nevertheless, the result was a nail-biter.
If Harris doesn’t carry at least a 6-point percentage lead in Wisconsin heading into Election Day, will she lose the state?
Based on a flurry of polling data from 2016 and 2020, Harris’s campaign shouldn’t be comfortable with any lead less than 7 percentage points in Wisconsin. For some reason, presidential polling in recent years has had a strong left lean there, giving Democrat strategists a false sense of security.
Thus far in 2024, there have been 11 RCP Harris vs Trump Wisconsin polls and the candidates have won 5 apiece with one tie. This year’s results are a far cry from the Democrat domination we saw in the previous two Badger State presidential polls.
So is Trump, at this moment (Aug 18, 2024), really winning Wisconsin?
Maybe.
If presidential pollsters haven’t changed their methodologies in Wisconsin from the previous two elections, Trump may very well be ahead there despite RCP’s average that favors Harris by one percentage point. In fact, a 5-point Harris lead in the RCP polling average still might not be enough for her to carry the state.
But, there may be some good news for Democrats. Alternet’s D. Earl Stephens, a Badger State resident, is very confident Harris will win Wisconsin in November.
“Where I live in Madison, we had a 45% turnout Tuesday — the highest for a fall partisan election EVER. This is an obscenely high number. The state overall was at a rock-solid 26% turnout, the highest in 60 years,” wrote Stephens in his recent article, Why Trump won’t win Wisconsin.
… “There were no big, competitive statewide races on the ballot to drive turnout, which is why the Republicans tried to sneak those damn initiatives on the ballot that were designed to take power away from our Democratic Governor Tony Evers in the first place.”
“Well, take a look at what we thought of the GOP’s disgusting ballot initiatives. They lost statewide by a whopping 15 points — 57%-42%. Again, this is a battleground state.”
“Rest assured, you can expect the turnout numbers to be close to double Tuesday’s in November.”
Statewide, Wisconsin residents rejected the attempted GOP-power grab 705,000 to 520,000 and Stephens believes this result is a foreshadowing of the presidential race there.
“You handle your business in whatever part of the country you find yourselves, and I promise you, we’ll handle ours.”
“We understand the assignment here in Wisconsin, dammit.”
My guess is the Republican proposals were bad ideas – They were so blatantly awful that the Trumpers who knew better voted against them.
However, we can’t assume the results of the ballot initiatives will mirror the presidential election as many of those voters who opposed the terrible Republican proposals will still probably support Trump in November.
In the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, Democrat incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by 6.2 percentage points, per RCP’s average.
Given Harris’s RCP lead is just a point, polling suggests that a lot of voters are supporting Trump even when they don’t support other Republican candidates or MAGA initiatives. So while Democrats are seeing some positive signs in Wisconsin, they should still be wary of the polling numbers.
