Margaret Hoover, a seasoned GOP strategist from the Bush era, highlighted a presumed concern yesterday among Republicans: The internal turnout and early voting data are causing significant unease.
Hoover suggests that former President Donald Trump’s campaign might be in a state of disarray, driven by troubling internal polling and early voting data. This information could indicate that the campaign is falling short of its turnout goals and may explain why they’re already (without any legitimate evidence) complaining about cheating.
During a Wednesday evening panel on “The Source,” hosted by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, a GOP campaign strategist raised an intriguing question – Could the campaign’s own detailed internal data be signaling impending trouble?
“I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers, you’re looking at your own internals,” Hoover said. “And I honestly think their internals are actually giving them pause.”
Hoover pointed out that campaigns possess the resources to conduct more advanced polling operations compared to media outlets. However, it’s important to recognize that trends such as voter turnout and enthusiasm are already quite apparent and accessible.
“They’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there is a real groundswell in the early vote, there is real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure,” Hoover noted.
To Hoover’s point, Harris seems to have generated significantly more excitement and enthusiasm than Trump’s previous opponents, Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden.
Are the pollsters, who were off-base in the last two presidential elections, wrong again for different reasons this time? Are they underestimating female turnout? Are they underestimating turnout by the 18-29 demographic? Are they underestimating turnout among Blacks? And are they underestimating the number of Republicans who support Harris?
Intangibles can be important, and turnout for all of the above demographics could break records in a big way.
Since early voting started, women have been casting their ballots at a significantly higher rate than men, which is an encouraging sign for Kamala Harris’s campaign. According to Politico, this trend aligns with recent polling data from ABC/Ipsos, where Harris outperformed Trump by approximately 14 points among female voters. This strong support from women could be a decisive factor in the election outcome, highlighting the importance of their votes and reinforcing why backing Harris is a strategic choice.
“I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign, amongst the operatives that actually do know the political wherewithal that the turnout and enthusiasm numbers are not where they need to be,” the Bush-era operative said.
Watch the full segment here:
