Democrats are feeling more anxious than ever. Just two months ago, or even just last month, there was a sense of optimism about Vice President Harris’s chances against former President Trump. However, with less than a month remaining until Election Day, concerns are mounting over several troubling issues affecting the Democratic nominee’s campaign.
The issue at hand: Despite the Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s campaign executing all the right strategies, she still hasn’t managed to pull ahead of Donald Trump in the polls. They’ve significantly outpaced Trump in fundraising efforts, Harris delivered a strong performance in the debate, Tim Walz seems to be a solid running mate, and there’s been considerable enthusiasm generated within the Democratic base. Yet, these efforts haven’t translated into a decisive lead over Trump.
Also, in recent days, Democrats have been riding a wave of exhilarating victories on several fronts! First, Harris celebrated a surge of economic optimism following the announcement of an impressive jobs report last week. This news couldn’t have come at a better time, as inflation—a persistent worry for Democrats—has begun to show promising signs of easing. And if that wasn’t enough to stir excitement, the looming threat of a port strike that could have jeopardized the economy has been successfully suspended.
These developments are nothing short of awesome and the Harris Campaign has crossed its t’s and dotted it’s i’s, yet the Vice President has been unable to separate herself in the polls, something President Joe Biden did effectively in 2020.
“Everything is deadlocked and the composition of the electorate is unknowable, and there are so many things that are unprecedented,” said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons who served as Harris’s communications director until last year.
“We can’t look back with any level of security because we haven’t had an African American woman on the ticket. We haven’t had a former president running again. We haven’t had a campaign with two assassination attempts. We haven’t switched out a candidate two months before Election Day before.”
“So it’s just hard to know,” Simmons explained. “If you’re not nervous, you’re not paying attention.”
Democratic strategist Anthony Coley, who served in the Biden administration, acknowledged the trepidation. He pointed to the stagnant poll numbers in the weeks following the Democratic National Convention, when Democrats were comparing Harris’s campaign to former President Obama’s run in 2008.
“Now that the sugar high is gone people have realized what Kamala Harris has said from the start, which is that she is the underdog,” Coley said via The Hill. “This is going to be a fight. … These numbers are just so stubborn.”
The polls in the battleground states are tighter. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average for swing states shows that no one has a lead of even a single percentage point in the nation’s seven key swing states.
Democrats have keenly felt the persistent anxiety stemming from the surprising 2016 presidential election results, where Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. They also recall how Trump exceeded poll expectations in the last two presidential elections. And unlike Biden in 2020, Harris lacks a polling cushion. If polls are skewed left again, her chances of winning are zero.
Yet there’s hope—some pollsters have adjusted their methodologies since 2020. If this time the polls lean rightward, Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.
“We are Democrats. We are professionally nervous,” said Democratic strategist Tim Hogan via The Hill.
“There’s confidence, but it’s measured because the stakes are so high,” Hogan added. “For the next four weeks, it’s about channeling that energy in productive ways: getting everyone on the doors and phones to turn out the vote.”
When questioned about the current state of the race, a prominent Democratic donor described it as a “flip of the coin,” highlighting just how unpredictable and evenly matched this contest truly is. This uncertainty underscores the importance of every single vote and contribution, making your support more crucial than ever in shaping the outcome.
“I feel better than I did last week, but it still doesn’t feel great,” a donor said. “I have a pit in my stomach.”
The donor attributed the feeling to several things but mostly pointed to one major flaw: Harris’s economic message wasn’t resonating.
“And the economy is issues number 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5,” the donor said.
“She is still fine-tuning her message 28 days out, and I’m sorry, we are in the make-the-sale phase of the campaign now, we’re not still tweaking the message,” the strategist said.
A Democratic consultant has expressed concern that despite Harris’s campaign “doing all the right things” in terms of fundraising, field operations, and even paid media efforts, “it may not be enough” for the vice president.
“We all knew this would be hard,” the consultant said. “It’s going to come down to the wire. No one knows how this will end. That’s almost the scariest part.”
