MAGA Republican Senator Ted Cruz’s seat is at risk of being claimed by Democratic Congressman Colin Allred, and here’s why you should pay attention.
A recent survey conducted by Mainstreet Research and released by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) reveals a crucial opportunity for change. Although Cruz currently holds a narrow 3 percentage point lead over Allred, the real game-changer lies with the undecided voters—a group more than three times larger than the margin between the candidates. Among all voters, Cruz leads 46 percent to Allred’s 43 percent, but with a significant 11 percent still undecided, their decision could decisively alter the outcome.
Even among likely voters where Cruz maintains his edge at 47 percent to Allred’s 44 percent, there remains a pivotal 3 percent who have yet to choose sides. This presents an undeniable chance for those seeking change to make their voices heard and potentially swing this race in favor of new leadership that aligns with their vision for Texas.
Republicans are optimistic about capturing the U.S. Senate due to a favorable map of seats up for grabs this November. However, if Democrats manage to flip Cruz’s seat, it would significantly hinder conservatives’ ambitions of regaining control of the chamber. This pivotal shift could reshape the political landscape and alter the balance of power in meaningful ways.
Although most surveys of the Texas race have consistently shown Cruz with an edge, it’s important to note that a Morning Consult poll released last month revealed Allred holding a narrow 1 percent lead over the incumbent. Additionally, several other polls have indicated that the race is within their margins of error. This data suggests Cruz is vulnerable and highlights an opportunity for a Democratic Senate flip if a high majority of undecided voters rally behind Allred.
Bitter truth for Democrats
In a hotly contested U.S. Senate race in 2018, Republican incumbent Ted Cruz held on to defeat Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points. It was a high-profile affair and the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978. O’Rourke, who raised a U.S. Senate record $80 million for the campaign, earned over four million votes, surpassing Hillary Clinton’s total of 3.87 million in the 2016 election, and received more votes than any other Democrat in Texas history. Democrats made fine strides, but it still wasn’t enough.
And that’s a hard fact Democrats must grapple with. Unlike Virginia, which turned blue rather fast (from 2004 to 2008), Texas’s conversion from red to purple or blue won’t happen nearly as fast if it happens at all.
Why Democrats should still be optimistic if polls continue to tighten
In 2018, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) aggregate of top pollsters had a strong right lean in the Texas U.S. Senate polling. Heading into Election Day, Pollsters had Cruz ahead by 7 percentage points, 4.4 percentage points greater than the result. Given Cruz has won the last two RCP polls by an average of just 3.5 percentage points, Allred could very well flip the seat if polling veers right again. When the two most recent polls, which are not included in RCP’s aggregate, are included, Cruz’s lead drops to an average of just 2.5 percentage points in the last four polls.
The Cook Political Report’s recent decision to downgrade Cruz’s seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on October 1 is a significant development. This shift suggests a growing opportunity for Allred, especially considering that no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988.
“We still think this race remains tough for Allred, and that winning those last few points in Texas will be a herculean task,” the report stated. “Republicans say they are now beginning to drive up Allred’s negatives as well as more money pours in, and an Oct. 15 debate will also be crucial.”
… But it’s Allred who has a considerable fundraising edge at the moment.
It was recently disclosed that Allred has amassed an astounding $30 million in just three months—surpassing Cruz’s fundraising efforts by a remarkable $9 million! This surge of support is a powerful testament to the momentum and energy driving Allred’s campaign forward.
“From the $5 grassroots donors to the families knocking doors together each weekend, this campaign is about bringing Texans together and holding Ted Cruz accountable for only caring about himself,” said Allred campaign manager. “This November, Colin Allred will send Ted Cruz packing for good.”
Watch this race closely. Cruz vs Allred appears to be getting tighter as the days pass. If Allred can get within 3 points of Cruz in the RCP aggregate he stands a fair chance of upsetting Cruz. But make no mistake, Cruz will be the favorite on Election Night.
