Donald Trump’s potential victory in the 2024 election carries significant implications that are hard to overlook. Firstly, it would mark an extraordinary comeback, transforming from a controversial figure post-election challenges to once again being president-elect. Secondly, a rightward trend in election outcomes would provide him with a clear mandate to pursue his vision of reshaping the US government as he has long promised. Lastly, should Republicans gain control of the US House of Representatives, Trump would have comprehensive governmental backing to implement meaningful changes across the nation.
However, Trump’s win was by no means a landslide. We’ve had some close elections since 2000 so any win is a strong one these days. But let’s keep things in perspective, it was far from a mandate for change when compared to legitimate landslides of the past.
As of Saturday, Trump is leading the popular vote with over 74 million votes. However, it’s important to consider that millions of votes still need to be counted in key states like California, Oregon, Maryland, and Washington. Given this situation, the final tally for the 2024 popular vote won’t be available until December.
Trump might barely reach 50.2 percent.
At this moment, Trump has won just 50.5 percent of the vote tally. Compare that to:
– 51.3 for Joe Biden in 2020
– 52.9 and 51.1 percent to Barack Obama 2008 and 2012
– 53.4 percent for George H.W. Bush in 1988, and
– 58.8 percent for Ronald Reagan
Once again, Trump’s popular vote percentage will likely drop as more votes are counted since most of the outstanding votes are in left-leaning states.
Trump received 312 electoral votes. Compare that with the following:
– 332 and 365 for Obama in 2008 and 2012
– 370 and 379 for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996
– 426 for George H.W. Bush in 1998, and
– 489 and 525 for Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984
In 1984, Ronald Reagan won every state sans
Minnesota and Washington, DC.
In his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, Trump garnered over 74 million votes, a little less than he’s expected to receive in 2024. There won’t be a lot of gain there.
A larger portion of the country leaned right during this election due to voter apathy, as evidenced by a decrease in turnout compared to 2020. However, it’s crucial to understand that voting patterns in most battleground states remained consistent with those of 2020. This consistency means that, ultimately, Kamala Harris would have lost the election even if she’d won the popular vote.
Down the ballot, it’s important to consider the recent trend where voters increasingly align their choices for the House, Senate, and White House. This shift has resulted in more frequent changes in control of both the White House and Congress.
However, despite this dynamic environment, Democrats won 4 of 7 crucial races, retaining Senate seats in several states that Trump won this year (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona).
N.B: The Arizona U.S. Senate race hasn’t been called yet but the Democrat is in a strong position to win.
In the Senate, Republicans were expected to flip two Democrat seats in conservative Montana and West Virginia. There were no surprises there. If there were any significant congressional takeaways for Republicans, they occurred in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where they managed to gain a Senate seat in each.
In the House, both parties currently have a net zero loss. In the end, one party will likely gain 2 or 3 (of 435) seats at most. Currently, Republicans have won 216 seats while Democrats have secured 208.
Trump’s victory in the 2024 election signifies a notable pattern: it’s the third consecutive presidential election where voters have opted to replace the incumbent party. This rare occurrence hasn’t been seen since the late 1800s when Grover Cleveland made history as the first president elected to nonconsecutive terms. Now, Trump follows suit as only the second president to achieve this feat, highlighting a significant shift in voter sentiment and political dynamics.
Former President Trump will not appear on a presidential ballot again due to the constraints imposed by the 22nd Amendment, which restricts presidents to two terms. However, voters will have the opportunity to evaluate his and the Republican Party’s exercise of power during the 2026 midterm elections. Historically, each of the last three presidents, including Trump in his initial term, experienced a loss of control over the House after their first two years in office. Should Trump secure a supportive Republican majority this year, he will need to exert considerable effort to maintain voter support in two years.
