With only days left in the 2024 campaign, polling expert Frank Luntz noted we’ve reached the limits of polls predicting the election outcome. He told CNN that polls are too close to gauge voter mindset accurately, and undecided voters are unlikely to choose Donald Trump or Kamala Harris at this late stage.
“I’m not looking as much at the polling anymore because that’s determined,” Luntz added. “I don’t believe there are anymore undecideds. There’s still non-committeds. There are still persuadables. But if you’re undecided, you reject both candidates. You don’t like them. You’re not gonna be voting for them.”
Instead of analyzing new polling data, he is focused on predicting turnout, especially the number of young women who will show up, he explained.
If that demographic makes up a bigger share of the overall electorate, then that’s great news for Harris and it may “propel her,” Luntz said.
He is closely watching Latino voters in swing states like Arizona and Nevada, where they could be decisive. Early voting data shows a surge of Democratic women in Pennsylvania who didn’t vote in 2020 but are now casting ballots. In Arizona, Republican men lead among new early voters.
An X factor is Trump’s rally last month at Madison Square Garden, potentially shifting the race in Harris’s favor. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe sparked Latino backlash by calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage.”
Poll accuracy is questioned due to past undercounting of Trump supporters, attributed to voter reluctance. However, Luntz doesn’t see this as an issue for 2024.
