This is why Republican campaign insiders are nervous. And it’s why Democrats have reason to be optimistic about Tuesday’s election.
Although Gallup doesn’t conduct the typical head-to-head election polls, it measures public opinion in ways that may predict election outcomes. On Thursday, Gallup released polls on voter enthusiasm for both major parties and compared them to past cycles, assessing each campaign’s voter outreach effectiveness.
In Gallup’s latest survey, voters were asked: “Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?” The results reveal a compelling trend: 77% of Democratic voters expressed increased enthusiasm about voting this time around. In contrast, only 67% of Republicans shared the same level of excitement. This data clearly indicates a significant enthusiasm gap that could influence the upcoming election outcomes.
When examining the 2024 election results compared to past elections, it’s clear that voter enthusiasm is at an all-time high. Democrats are particularly driven, showing even greater motivation to vote in 2024 than they did in the landmark 2008 election, where an impressive 76% expressed increased enthusiasm.
This year, their eagerness has only intensified. Similarly, Republican voters are demonstrating a notable rise in excitement for the upcoming election. In 2008, 61% of Republicans felt more enthusiastic about voting; this figure has now risen to 67% in 2024. These statistics highlight a compelling trend: both parties are more energized than ever before, making participation crucial and impactful this election season.
But, consider this compelling insight from Gallup’s survey: Republican voter enthusiasm remains steady, with 67% today compared to 66% in 2020. However, what’s truly noteworthy is that Harris is generating even more enthusiasm among her supporters than President Joe Biden did. While Biden had a strong showing at 75%, Harris has surpassed this with an impressive 77%. This increase in enthusiasm could be a significant factor in shaping the political landscape.
“Since Gallup first asked the question in 2000, the enthusiasm measure has shown a mixed relationship with presidential election outcomes. Democratic enthusiasm advantages in 2008 and 2020 preceded party wins, while a Republican advantage in 2012 came in a year their party lost,” Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones wrote. “Republicans also had a lead in 2000, when George W. Bush won the election in the Electoral College. In other years, no party had an obvious advantage in enthusiasm.”
