Democrats should be at least a little worried by Gallup’s latest favorability poll which shows the unpopular Donald Trump slightly more favorable than Kamala Harris. Moreover, the result mimics some of the latest general polling with Trump outpacing Harris in favorability 50 to 48 percent.
Trump’s current favorability rating is slightly higher than the rating he achieved in 2020, and notably improved from his record low of 36% positive in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton.
The ultimate questions: How many of those folks view both candidates the same, and how are they voting?
For example, are voters with an unfavorable view of Harris and Trump leaning a certain way? My guess is most of those voters are likely hardcore Republicans who don’t like the Trump/MAGA Movement but tolerate it. If that’s accurate, Trump may be on his way to winning the presidency again.
Of course, like election polling, this poll is very close and probably within the margin of error.
These results come from an Oct. 1-12 Gallup poll asking Americans to rate the major-party presidential nominees on a scale from +5 to -5, a method used in all election years except 1988, 1996, and 2000. Gallup used this “Scalometer” for national figures until the 1990s when it switched to a binary favorable/unfavorable scale. The latest binary rating from late September shows Harris at 48% favorable and Trump at 47%.
Several Observations
– John McCain, who boasted a strong 63/35 favorability/unfavorability rating in 2008 lost to Barack Obama whose ratings were roughly the same. If you’re a Democrat, this is the most friendly stat as McCain edged Obama in favorability (just as Trump is narrowly ahead of Harris) but lost an election that wasn’t close.
– In 2004, George W. Bush, despite a healthy 61/39 rating, squeaked by against John Kerry who was slightly less favorable at 57/40.
– In 2020, Joe Biden carried a 54/43 rating to Trump’s 47/51.
– And in 2016, Hillary Clinton was viewed more unfavorably at 47/52 while Trump’s ratings were in the gutter at 36/61. The latter, of course, won that race thanks to a surge in third-party voting that year in what was an outlier presidential election.
