It’s a question I’d been asking since 2016 – How the heck is Donald Trump still polling so well?
I cut Trumpers a little slack in 2016 because Trump was new and so different from any major candidate we’d seen before. But, after Trump’s dizzying presidency from 2016 to 2020, which was marked by ballooning deficits, the federal response to COVID-19, Trump’s constant lies and clowning, the January 6th insurrection, and two impeachments, how Trump is still relevant was beyond me.
Moreover, I recently asked, “How is Kamla Harris’s campaign barely staying even with Trump in the polls when they are doing everything right and Trump’s everything wrong?”
She decisively outperformed him in the debate, is doubling him in fundraising, and has sparked an electrifying energy within the Democratic Party that hasn’t been witnessed since 2008. Meanwhile, Trump has ranted and raved like a madman, insisting immigrants are eating pets and awing over other men’s penis size.
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg with No. 45. I simply don’t have the time to elaborate on Trump’s flubs or his campaign’s spectacular weirdness, starting with running mate J.D. Vance.
If Harris talked about men’s penis size or women’s breasts, she’d lose a significant portion of her following because a lot of us would find that crude and nasty, and very unpresidential. So, she has to walk a much finer line than Trump.
Anyway, How the heck is Trump still in this?
In Medium.com’s, How the heck did Trump get this close to winning the election?, Shankar Narayan convincingly argues that the Republican coalition that supported candidates like George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney is a thing of the past. He asserts that MAGA represents a distinctly new alliance, and introduces his Four Pillars of the Trump-MAGA Coalition, explaining why Trump’s influence lies precisely there, and how he significantly contributes to each pillar.
The four pillars are:
1- Men Without a College Degree
2- Christian Right
3- Billionaire Class
4- Longtime Republican Voters Who Aren’t Pro-MAGA, but Will Support a Democrat When Pigs Fly
According to Narayan, that’s 50 million core supporters right off the top. And while that’s not enough to win a presidential election, it’s a heck of a head start. After that, you only need to court White nationalists, homophobes, and folks vulnerable to disinformation, and you’re well on your way to winning an election. And, yes, there’s some overlap, but make no mistake, the Trump/MAGA coalition is large and wealthy enough to force the Democrats to struggle, win or lose. In fact, Democrats have to perform so much better than their Republican opponents these days to win a presidential election as well as many statewide races.
And, no, there aren’t enough billionaires to make a difference in the voting but they are a key pillar because they help Trump/MAGA financially. “If you’re a billionaire shareholder, what’s not to love about Trump’s presidency?,” Narayan writes. “He delivered in 2017, and now he’s promising to do it again by lowering the corporate tax rate even further, from 21% to 15%.”
Those heavyweight donors love their heavyweight tax breaks and will continue to throw heavyweight money at Trump/MAGA.
So, we essentially have a well-funded movement. And for every group in that movement that backs Trump, he provides something the Democrats simply cannot match.
Can the Democrats promise to appease the Christian Right by eliminating abortion? Will they extend further tax breaks to billionaires? Can they appeal to economically struggling men and convince them that government institutions, intellectuals, the so-called elites, minorities, career women, and immigrants are the reasons they are not where they want to be life?
So, that’s why Trump/MAGA remains strong despite everything else. And they will remain powerful for some time. They don’t care about the lies or Trump’s fascination with large penises because they are far too invested in their scapegoats, their “perceptions” of God and Christianity, money, and never voting for a Democrat. Those things mean more to them than Trump/MAGA’s odious platform and comedy of errors. MAGA leaders have, indeed, found that non-negotiable idiosyncrasy among each segment of their following.
And this foundation is why MAGA supporters and the billionaire circle are confident in continuing their strategy even after Trump leaves politics.
Narayan goes into more detail and suggests how non-MAGAs can overcome this large, strong coalition that’s as solid as it is dangerous.
How the heck did Trump get this close to winning the election?
