A prominent Republican adviser offered a prediction about the upcoming presidential election on Friday, expressing a strong sense of certainty: “This sucker is baked.”
“I’m going to make a bold prediction here because I just don’t give a sh– if I’m wrong, even if this lives on the internet forever,” Mark McKinnon wrote in an essay published Friday by Vanity Fair. “Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.”
In explaining how he arrived at his prediction, he earnestly stated that he doesn’t believe there are any undecided voters. He suggested that if someone hasn’t made up their mind by now, it’s likely they won’t be participating in the election at all. Ultimately, the decisive factor will be which group can mobilize more of their voters to show up. Trump supporters are undeniably “committed,” but Harris’ supporters are “excited.”
McKinnon, who served under President George W. Bush, highlighted a crucial distinction between the supporters of Harris and those of former President Trump.
“Here’s why I say it’s Harris’s to lose. Trump voters may be committed, but Harris voters are excited and enthusiastic. In August, the Harris–Tim Walz ticket enjoyed an eight-point lead when it came to voter enthusiasm,” he said, referencing an article about voter enthusiasm.”
“And there is a big difference in the ground game. Democrats are largely paying their field workers, while Republicans are mostly relying on volunteers,” he wrote in the piece. “These are factors not being picked up on the radar of the head-to-head polling.”
Moreover, McKinnon pointed out a noticeable “gender gap” among candidates and emphasized that gaining women’s support could be crucial for Harris’s success in securing victory. This insight underscores the potential impact of female voters in shaping political outcomes.
“Yes, Trump has an advantage with men. But I believe that in the end, the Harris gender gap with women will shatter all previous records and be determinative,” he said.
A recent Emerson College survey, released on Friday, highlights a crucial dynamic in voter preferences that cannot be overlooked. Among male voters, the former president holds a notable lead over the vice president with 56 percent to 42 percent. However, it’s essential to recognize Vice President Harris’s impressive performance among women voters, where she surpasses her GOP opponent by capturing 55 percent compared to his 41 percent.
Although there’s a 14-point gap both ways, women outnumber and outvote men.
The poll results clearly demonstrate a highly competitive race, with the Democratic nominee holding a narrow 1-point lead over Trump nationally, at 49% to 48%. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s index further underscores this tight contest, showing Harris with a slightly larger advantage of 2.5 points, leading at 49.7% to Trump’s 47.2%.
“But when it all comes out in the wash, I think women are going to do the work and save our a– and our democracy,” McKinnon continued. “They’ve been doing it for centuries, so it shouldn’t be a surprise.”
“There’s no big last debate. No tentpole events likely to shake up the race in these dwindling days. Yes, a full-on war could break out in the Middle East. Or another hurricane could blow ashore, wreaking havoc—and Category 5 conspiracy theories. But the reality is that if nothing or everything happens between now and November 5, it’s unlikely to change the outcome.”
