While there’s a wave of optimistic enthusiasm among Democrats, it’s crucial to recognize that Vice President Kamala Harris is currently trailing slightly behind former President Donald Trump with only 17 days remaining until the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. And her poll numbers appear to be continually dropping. Moreover, she consistently trails behind President Joe Biden’s 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 standings. This trend is fueling concern among Democrats in the know as they are acutely aware of her current downward trajectory, and without substantial improvement, her defeat in November seems inevitable. The latest polling data paints a stark picture.
The RealClearPolitics average from October 17 shows Harris leading Trump 49.2% to 47.7% in a national race. However, Joe Biden defeated Trump by 4.4% in the 2020 popular vote, yet his Electoral College win was narrow. His victory relied on Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin—43 electoral votes—won by under 77,000 votes combined. The gap between Biden’s popular vote lead and slim electoral win shows the importance of every vote in key battleground states.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had large surpluses in California and New York but only led the popular vote by 2.1 points (48.2% to 46.1%) and lost the electoral vote decisively (304-227). Kamala Harris’s polling slightly below Clinton’s margin is a concern for Democrats, compounded by her significantly lower polling compared to Biden and Clinton at similar campaign stages in 2020 and 2016.
HARRIS VS TRUMP 2024
The RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 17 national average shows Harris with a 1.4-point lead. For context, in 2020, Biden, on Election Day morning led by 7.2 points via a similar polling aggregrate, and in 2016, Clinton had a 3.2-point advantage at the same time.
BIDEN VS TRUMP 2020
The true narrative unfolds in the battleground states, where every vote counts.
As of October 17, the RealClearPolitics polling averages reveal a concerning trend: Trump holds a narrow lead in all seven battleground states, including a marginal gain in Wisconsin. This is a stark contrast to 2020 when Biden led comfortably in these states, sometimes by significant margins.
Furthermore, Harris’s performance is notably disappointing; she trails not only behind Biden’s previous standings but also falls short of Clinton’s unsuccessful 2016 campaign in six out of the seven states, with Georgia being the sole exception.
The risk is clear: Even amidst the challenges of COVID, civil unrest, and pandemic lockdowns, Biden’s victory in 2020 was narrow. And despite having stronger polling than Harris currently does at this stage in the race eight years ago, Clinton unexpectedly lost to Trump in 2016.
But, Democrats have three reasons to be optimistic
1. Interviews – By stepping into the spotlight with friendly interviews, Harris has an opportunity to persuade an electorate that remains skeptical.
2. Rightward polling lean – Because polling leaned so far left in 2016 and 2020, most pollsters have changed their methodologies since the last presidential election. Perhaps they’ve gone too far and are underestimating Democrat support the same way they underestimated Republican support in 2016 and 2020.
If the polls in battleground states skew right by an average of just 1.5 percent, Harris likely has a 90 percent chance of winning. It’s important to note that larger polling inaccuracies have occurred before, as seen in the battleground states during both the 2016 and 2020 elections, albeit in the other direction.
3. Young people – If the 18-29 demographic turns out at a rate comparable to the other age demographics, Harris becomes the favorite to win. According to exit polls in 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden secured a significant victory among young voters, capturing 60 percent of the votes from those aged 18-29, while Trump garnered only 36 percent. However, this age demographic was, by far, the least engaged. The good news for Democrats is the 18-29 demographic is even stronger for Harris and they appear to be motivated like never before.
The race is so close that any movement in a positive direction for Harris would be huge. If you’re a Democrat, encourage young people to vote – especially if you’re a battleground state. Second, win over as many undecideds as possible, and encourage them to partake in the political process if they’re registered.
Finally, consider that a natural rightward polling lean is entirely reasonable, just as a record-breaking turnout by young people is. Both scenarios are plausible and should be factored in as possibilities.
