Over the past several weeks, Democrats have been giddy over a random poll or two suggesting Vice President Kamala Harris’s numbers are within the margin of error of Donald Trump’s in Florida.
Don’t believe the hype, Democrats. Spend time in the states that are truly battlegrounds, like Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If we’ve learned anything since 2016, it’s presidential polls, especially in Florida, lean left, and have given Democrat strategists a false sense of hope.
In 2016, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) aggregate of top pollsters had Trump ahead in Florida by 0.4 percent suggesting it would be razor close. And while it was very competitive, Trump outperformed the polls there and won the Sunshine State by a full 1.2 percentage points.
But what happened in 2016 was nothing compared to the tease four years later.
Biden entered Election Day ahead in Florida by nearly a percentage point via RCP yet lost by a whopping 3.3 percentage points. He seemed well-positioned to win there as most of the polls had him ahead.
As of September 8, Trump is ahead of Harris by 6 percentage points in Florida per RCP. Thus far, she’s underperforming Biden, who lost Florida by over 3 percentage points in Florida in 2020, by nearly seven percentage points.
Unless presidential pollsters haven’t significantly changed their methodologies in Florida, the odds of Harris winning there are remote. Unless polls start showing Harris ahead by at least 2 percentage points there, the Harris Campaign should stay away from Florida.
Things are looking a little better in Florida for Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Although her RCP aggregate has her polling 4.3 percentage points behind incumbent Rick Scott, the latest poll had her down by only a percentage point. Given that Scott is one of the more unpopular senators, Mucarsel-Powell, despite being a clear underdog, may have a realistic chance of an upset.
