In July, Donald Trump told Christian summit attendees they would never need to vote again if he returned to the presidency in November.
He told the crowd to “get out and vote, just this time”, adding that “you won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.”
Of course, he later backtracked a bit but most of us realize there was some sincerity in what he said.
Now, combine Trump’s statements about future elections with Project 2025, a political initiative published by the Heritage Foundation that aims to promote right-wing policies to reshape the United States federal government and consolidate executive power if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
It’s been called “authoritarian” and “dystopian” for good reason. Part of the plan’s vision is to give Trump, should he win in November, and his appointees more power over the executive branch relative to permanent nonpartisan civil service professionals. Critics fear this will lead to an abuse of power and create an authoritarian presidency similar to Vladimir Putin’s in Russia.
If your political party has lost the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections, as the Republicans have, it’s probably not a bad idea to try to attain power and keep it permanently, and thereby eliminate or highly restrict the public’s role in determining the outcome in presidential elections.
Is it any wonder Republicans are moving towards authoritarianism?
Enter Texas.
The Lone Star State, the second largest in the country, has long been the crown jewel for Republicans in presidential elections but that could change soon. Texas is getting less red as the years go by. In fact, the latest Texas presidential poll had Trump ahead of Vice President and Democrat nominee Kamala Harris by just 5 percentage points – a far cry from Lone Star State polls of decades past.
The last Democrat presidential candidate to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Thus, from 1980 to the present, the Lone Star State has been “Safe Republican” in presidential elections.
But, wait. The Bushes were from Texas, so that explains the whopping margins in 1988, 2000, and 2004 right?
Wrong.
Ronald Reagan’s win in 1984 was larger than all three of the father and son Bush wins.
Fast forwarding to 2008 and 2012, Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney earned Lone Star wins over Barack Obama well into double digits. However, after Donald Trump defeated rival Hillary Clinton there by only 8.8 percentage points in 2016, many started to wonder if the state’s days as a GOP stronghold were numbered. And we found our answer in 2020 as Joe Biden was almost competitive there, closing the gap even more to about 5.5 percentage points.
Once a bastion of conservativism, Texas is increasingly moving left ideologically.
Is Texas headed down the same road as Virginia – a blue state that was deep red not long ago? Is Texas headed down the same path as Arizona, a purple state that was solidly red not long ago?
Only time will tell if Texas will become a battleground state in 2028 or 2032.
In a hotly contested U.S. Senate race in 2018, Republican incumbent Ted Cruz held on to defeat Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points. It was a high-profile affair and the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978. O’Rourke, who raised a U.S. Senate record $80 million for the campaign, earned over four million votes, surpassing Hillary Clinton’s total of 3.87 million in the 2016 election, and received more votes than any other Democrat in Texas history. Democrats made fine strides, but it still wasn’t enough.
And that’s a hard fact Democrats must grapple with. Unlike Virginia, which turned blue rather fast (from 2004 to 2008), Texas’s conversion from red to purple or blue won’t happen nearly as fast if it happens at all.
But should Texas become a bettleground state, it would change the entire landscape of presidential elections. Republicans would be far more vulnerable in other swing states because they’d have to divert time and resources from those states in order to carry Texas and remain competitive overall.
Demographics
Although we’re seeing demographic shifts nationwide, it’s happening faster in Texas and Florida. In the Lone Star State, for example, Whites comprised 62 percent of the state’s voting electorate in 2000 but only 51 percent in 2018. And in 2022, Texas Hispanics surpassed Whites for the first time since 1850. The new population figures show Hispanics comprised 40.2% of the state’s population, narrowly surpassing non-Hispanic White Texans, who made up 39.8%. In addition, the number of Asians there tripled from 2000 to 2020.
Hispanics are also, by far, the youngest major racial/ethnic group in the United States. Pew Research found that nearly six-in-ten Hispanics are Millennials or younger. And even Blacks, as a racial demographic, are much younger than Whites who are the oldest racial or ethnic group. That’s bad news for Republicans because their bread-and-butter supporters tend to be White and, of far less numerical consequence, Hispanics of Cuban descent.
2024
Texas’s days as a Republican stronghold seem to be numbered. So while we can surmise Texas will be at least semi-competitive in November, there’s certainly not enough data to suggest a Democratic presidential candidate can win there yet. But don’t be surprised if it is battleground-worthy in 2028 or 2032.
Prediction: In November 2024, Trump will win Texas by 3.5 percentage points.
