Wait, what?
Nebraska?
But isn’t Nebraska a comfortably-red state with just 5 electoral votes? How might the Cornhusker State be pivotal in the upcoming presidential race?
Answer: The winner-take-all system doesn’t apply in Maine and Nebraska because their electoral votes are allocated differently. As a result, this creates scenarios where electoral votes can be divided among multiple candidates. Both states, Nebraska and Maine, award two electoral votes to the overall winner of the statewide popular vote, and then one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district within the state (two districts in Maine, three in Nebraska).
For instance, in 2020 former President Donald Trump won Neabrasks’s popular vote and was automatically rewarded with 2 of the state’s 5 electoral votes. And as the winner of Districts 1 and 3, he collected two more electoral votes. However, because then-candidate Joe Biden carried the second district, he was awarded one of five of Nebraska’s electoral votes.
Nebraska’s Electoral Vote Breakdown
Popular vote winner – 2
District 1 winner – 1
District 2 winner – 1
District 3 winner -1
Total – 5
(For those who think Nebraska’s system rewarded Democrats unfairly, the same dynamic worked against them in Maine in 2020)
Historically red, Nebraska’s 2nd district flipped blue in a big way in 2020 and could have major implications later this year.
Why?
Should Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat nominee, carry Nebraska’s second district, she’ll have a clear path to victory without winning Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, four of the seven big swing states. See below.
Currently, Harris appears to be winning in Arizona but might be trailing in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Trump would have the advantage in a tie
In the above scenario, Harris reaches 270 by winning the Rust Belt states and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. However, in the same scenario, the candidates would tie at 269 if Trump won NE-2.
According to the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, if no candidate receives a majority of the Electoral College votes in a presidential election, the newly sworn-in Congress decides the outcome. The House of Representatives elects the President. Each state delegation in the House casts one vote, and a majority of state delegations (at least 26 out of 50) is needed to choose the President.
The Senate elects the Vice President. Each Senator casts one vote, and a majority of Senators (at least 51 out of 100) is needed to choose the Vice President.
As of late September, 2023, Republicans held a 26-22 edge in House delegations. Two states, Minnesota and North Carolina, were evenly split. However, it is the Members of Congress elected in November, 2024, and seated in January, 2025 that would take on this responsibility.
For Harris to win an electoral tie-breaker, Democrats would have to really clean house in November’s congressional elections.
So, Harris winning the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which bedeviled Hillary Clinton in 2016, wouldn’t be enough to win the election without her winning NE-2 or upending Trump in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, or Georgia.
Should Harris focus on the presumably lower-hanging fruit in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District where Biden defeated Trump by a whopping 7 percentage points in 2020?
It should be no surprise Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz, just under two weeks after being announced as Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate, held his first solo campaign rally in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District.
Walz, who grew up in Nebraska, has deep connections to the state. Before becoming Governor of Minnesota, he attended Chadron State College in Chadron, served in the Nebraska Army National Guard, and met his wife Gwen while teaching in Alliance, Nebraska. At the rally, he highlighted his ties to Nebraska by referencing local culture, such as cinnamon rolls, chili, and college football.
He also took a jab at former President Donald Trump, noting Nebraska’s slogan: “Nebraska, it’s not for everyone. Well, it sure isn’t for Donald Trump, I’ll tell you that,” Walz said.
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District… It could be vital in 2024.
